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Yield Rate

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Replies to: Yield Rate

  • JHSJHS Posts: 36
    edited May 2013
    Well, you are taking for granted, with no real evidence, that EA (or ED for that matter) DOES in fact offer an advantage, besides the obvious one of getting a decision in December rather than March. If you accept the proposition that the EA pool is academically stronger on average than the RD pool (which is what people say all the time), and you take the recruited athletes out of the numerator and denominator, it's not obvious at all that the slightly higher admission rate doesn't reflect a slightly higher proportion of admissible candidates in the pool.

    Now, in the specific cases of Chicago and MIT (and maybe Georgetown), I have my doubts that the EA pool really is stronger than the RD pool. I think those colleges get a fairly high number of RD applications from deferred SCEA applicants at HYPS -- applicants who are very strong on paper and reasonably believed they had a legitimate shot at an early acceptance at one of those colleges. That group should be at least as strong as the EA pool, if not a good bit stronger on average. It would be hard to believe that Chicago does not get several thousand of those applications RD. (And further, I suspect that group of applications turns into a large share of the RD acceptances as well.)

    The thing is, hardly any applicant has an average chance of admission. If we had perfect knowledge, we would probably be able to sort the applicants into three rough groups: One group with a 90-100% chance (including athletic recruits), one group with a 40-60% chance, and the third with really no chance at all, maybe a lottery ticket's worth. The first group is small, and it doesn't matter when they apply, except that most of the athletes have to apply EA. We have no real idea about how the EA and RD pools divide between the other groups, nor if the middle group (the only one that really matters) is in fact advantaged by applying early, and by how much.

    Nevertheless, I agree that part of what matters here is student perception. Students think early applications give them an advantage. And the colleges, while consistently mouthing denials of that proposition, do a lot of winking and eyebrow-arching to encourage that line of thinking.
  • xiggixiggi Posts: 157
    edited May 2013
    JHS, what is your opinion of the process at Questbridge? Do you find it scummy?
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