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Are these numbers correct?

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Replies to: Are these numbers correct?

  • HuntHunt 152 replies1 discussions Junior Member
    I think the OP's realization is a valuable one: people need to realize that even if their kid is the smartest kid in the local high school in decades, or ever, there are lots of really smart, accomplished kids graduating from high school each year. So even the most accomplished kids need to ignore people who say "you'll get in anywhere" and have an application strategy that doesn't just focus on the very most selective schools.

    And as I've said a bunch of times, with shifting numbers, in my opinion there are about 100 colleges in the top 20.
    edited May 2013
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  • BobWallaceBobWallace 64 replies2 discussions New Member
    Adcoms at Ivy's say they could fill their classes successfully many times over from their applicant pool.

    And yet, they continue to recruit and market aggressively, in pursuit of absurdly lower and lower admit rates.
    edited May 2013
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  • RobDRobD 5 replies1 discussions Junior Member
    ^^^What Hunt said. D2 got no's from both her super reach schools, which didn't surprise US because I'm blunt and pragmatic :) BUT it has taken the wind out of a couple of our junior parent friends whose kiddos are aiming high next year. As one said to my DH "if your Mensa kid didn't get in, who does?" Which we know isn't an accurate statement and we never had that attitude. But given their kiddo's dream school is a top 10, and I know their transcript is not what D2's was, I'm glad we were able to give them a reality check.

    This is why the CC mantra "LOVE THY SAFETY" is so important. Even more so in 2013 than in 2010.
    edited May 2013
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  • CreeklandCreekland 22 replies1 discussions Junior Member
    I think the OP's realization is a valuable one: people need to realize that even if their kid is the smartest kid in the local high school in decades, or ever, there are lots of really smart, accomplished kids graduating from high school each year. So even the most accomplished kids need to ignore people who say "you'll get in anywhere" and have an application strategy that doesn't just focus on the very most selective schools.

    And as I've said a bunch of times, with shifting numbers, in my opinion there are about 100 colleges in the top 20.

    I'm 100% with you - and just quoted it because saying it again and again might help the junior class (and parents) of countless tomorrows.
    edited May 2013
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  • Bigdaddy88Bigdaddy88 29 replies5 discussions
    The overarching message is...craft your college list carefully and realistically. Between the vast amount of insight gleaned from this site and careful inspection of the CDS's, we feel pretty comfortable with our list.

    I also agree with RobD. You gotta get rejected by at least two school or you didn't aim high enough!!
    edited May 2013
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  • jandjdadjandjdad 9 replies0 discussions New Member
    RobD wrote:
    What I told both my D's was that their test scores and GPAs made them legitimate buyers of lottery tickets into the super reach schools they applied to. Beyond that, I told them not to expect to get in, but that they had as good a chance as most. And if you don't get at least 1 no, then you probably didn't reach high enough.

    If I didn't know better I'd think that you were eavesdropping at our house because that is almost word for word what I told my son at the beginning of the process. Going in with " eyes wide open" and realistic expectations makes it less dramatic as we've seen from some of our neighbors who are using lessons from their experiences 30 years ago....now very outdated.
    edited May 2013
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  • mythmommythmom 27 replies0 discussions Junior Member
    Some top schools, such as Bowdoin, are test optional. A woman can also consider the top women's colleges which considerably changes the numbers.
    edited May 2013
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  • bovertinebovertine 41 replies0 discussions Junior Member
    OP is obviously not the first to mull this over -
    http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/413821-sat-score-frequencies-freshman-class-sizes.html

    I wasn't going to post the following link because of the way some posters behaved in the past, but what the hey, I'm sure this is a much more mature bunch. Here are the acceptances from a couple years ago at the local high school (it is public data). Please, this is not a scientifically precise table of data so try to refrain from nit-picking specific data points it or commenting on specific applicants (even though it is done by number)

    http://www.pvphs.com/pdf/CollegeAcceptance.pdf


    You will see that SAT matters some but most places it isn't a precise predictor of anything. For the UCs, GPA is probably a better predictior, as can been seen by the scattergrams in the back.

    Primarily for a rough idea and entertainment folks.
    edited May 2013
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  • SomeOldGuySomeOldGuy 28 replies1 discussions New Member
    What I told both my D's was that their test scores and GPAs made them legitimate buyers of lottery tickets into the super reach schools they applied to. Beyond that, I told them not to expect to get in, but that they had as good a chance as most. And if you don't get at least 1 no, then you probably didn't reach high enough.

    This sounds familiar. What I told my kid was that there is some combination of scores and grades that get you out of the big pool (30,000 apps) and into the small one (10,000). But after that, the colleges basically throw the numbers away and stock their entering classes based on other characteristics. When he asked me specifically if I thought he could get into College X, I always answered, "I'm not sure, but I think with your profile, if you apply to six colleges like College X, you'll get into at least two, and then you'll have a choice."

    But I also agree with the point, as amply demonstrated in the Minneapolis article, that not only do many parents not understand this but lots of school administrators don't -- and that's where expectations get mismanaged.
    edited May 2013
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  • HuntHunt 152 replies1 discussions Junior Member
    if you apply to six colleges like College X, you'll get into at least two, and then you'll have a choice
    This reminds me of another drum I like to beat, which is: don't have a dream school, have a strategy.
    edited May 2013
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  • mom2collegekidsmom2collegekids 212 replies4 discussions Junior Member
    ^^^

    I doubt that kid has "no hooks". Something triggered his app from being picked. Some unusual life experience, achievement, or something.


    Back to the OP. Test scores aren't everything, especially at the best publics. Very good schools like UCLA, Cal, Mich, UVA, UIUC and UNC-CH weight GPA more than test scores.


    The best privates may "dip" down to the 90th percentile (or lower) to accept a student who helps with ethnic or regional diversity, or has a talent (athletic, music, performance, artistic). A fabulous artist may be so right-brained that his/her test scores are rather lowish, but a top school may still accept.
    edited May 2013
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  • Kennedy2010Kennedy2010 60 replies3 discussions New Member
    D has great test scores - good gpa - unusual EC - and off-the-charts essays. I think it was the essays that really showed her personality and thinking that pushed her "over the edge" and got her admitted to many of her top choices. She is a quirky kid (of course, what kid isn't) and it showed through in her essays as a real positive.
    edited May 2013
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  • HuntHunt 152 replies1 discussions Junior Member
    I think the takeaway from this should be that even if you're a Native American with perfect grades and scores who is also a recruitable football player, a violinist who was on From the Top, and an Intel winner, don't assume that there aren't a whole lot of other super-accomplished kids vying for the same spots.

    And the second takeaway should be that even if you're not the person described above, don't sell youself short--you may not have those traits, but you may have others that top schools will want--you just have to understand what they are looking for, and do a realistic evaluation of what you have to offer.
    edited May 2013
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  • Kennedy2010Kennedy2010 60 replies3 discussions New Member
    bovertine - the list is interesting but it would really be better if you could sort it by school.
    edited May 2013
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  • bovertinebovertine 41 replies0 discussions Junior Member
    bovertine - the list is interesting but it would really be better if you could sort it by school.
    I can't sort it. But the school did. THe second half of the list is sorted by school. Go back to the middle of the list.
    edited May 2013
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