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After the top 20 national universities, we began to see very large public universities. So from 21-25 you might have another 25,000 acceptances and for the second tier LAC's you can add another 2,000 admissions. So...if you are realistic AND scored higher on the standardized tests than 98% of all kids taking the test, you can begin to look at schools squarely in the dreaded second tier!
Someone PLEASE tell me my methodology is wrong.
The large public schools tend to accept more based purely on scores and class rank. (Or at least the CA UC schools do).
I didn't get the sense the OP thought "admissions are all about test scores." He was just making a point about how big the pie of high-test-scorers is, compared to the number of seats at top schools.
Here is the table for ACT scores for class of 2012. Look on about page 14. This will tell you how many kids got each score.
I just make a broad assumption that this will be the case with the vast majority of kids at the very top of the standard test scorer's.